(AsiaGameHub) – In a sudden reversal, the Hong Kong government has paused the introduction of legal basketball wagering, which was originally scheduled for September. This decision stems from increasing concerns regarding the proliferation of crypto-based prediction markets.
These digital platforms allow individuals to place bets on various future outcomes, ranging from sports matches and financial trends to military conflicts. The swift emergence of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket has sparked a discussion regarding the definition of prediction markets. In particular, legislators and regulators are debating if event contracts should be classified as unlawful gambling.
Last September, Hong Kong enacted legislative amendments to authorize basketball betting in an effort to curb illegal gambling. During 2023, the illicit market was estimated to have handled HK$34 billion (US$4.3 billion) in turnover.
Alice Mak, the Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs in Hong Kong, stated that the enactment of the legislation does not compel authorities to grant licenses according to a rigid schedule.
“As a government dedicated to responsibility, we are required to make firm choices to safeguard the public interest,” Mak remarked. “It would be irresponsible to grant a license solely because a bill was approved last year without taking other external variables into account.”
A preemptive gesture to appease Beijing?
The Hong Kong Jockey Club, which was slated to operate the betting scheme, was not informed of this change until Monday evening. However, according to the South China Morning Post, the club’s senior management had prior knowledge of the postponement. The Post cited a “club insider” who questioned, “Prediction markets have been around for a while. Why wasn’t this anticipated sooner? … Was this decision influenced by factors outside of [the government’s] control?”
Local news outlets have theorized that Hong Kong, like Macau, being a special administrative region (SAR) of China, aimed to avoid conflict with the central government, which maintains stringent control over gambling activities. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, Beijing has intensified its crackdown on cross-border gambling, associating it with money laundering and various other offenses.
In an email sent on Tuesday, the Hong Kong government highlighted that trading volumes on prediction markets surged in 2025, reaching a peak of US$64 billion, which represents a 200% increase from the year before. “Considering these recent trends, it is essential for a responsible government to carry out a comprehensive analysis of how these new models and platforms function.”
Adrian Pedro Ho, a member of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, has backed the suspension, describing it as a wise precaution given the rapid changes in technology. “The launch of basketball betting has not yet occurred,” he stated. “There is no justification for introducing a new initiative that might stimulate or support illegal gambling.”
There has been no official communication regarding the timeline for the future implementation of legal basketball betting.
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